Odds of 2.0 imply a 50% probability, odds of 4.0, 25% and so on. In fact, what follows doesn’t really change very much for either unskilled bettors betting to the margin, or skilled bettors managing to find marginal profitable expectation, the reason being that the vast majority of what happens in betting is a consequence of randomness. As such the odds will then reflect the ‘true’ probability of a result. In other words, they are achieving fair odds. Let’s consider a bettor who is skilled enough to break even over the long term. At least with the simplest losing run, however, we can offer some basic mathematical formulae to describe them, difficult with more complex scenarios. ![]() ![]() I will use a consecutive run of k losing bets in a sample of n bets with the same odds, although there is no reason why one couldn’t extend this to cover more complex losing periods and more complex betting records with variable betting odds using a Monte Carlo simulation. I have limited myself here in order to keep things simple. What are drawdowns and how do you manage them?.
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